Otto Rehhagel, 59, grinning from ear to ear, scuttled across the Olympiastadion upon hearing the final whistle. When he passed FC Kaiserslautern players on the way, he gave them a slap on the back to congratulate them, but kept running. The flask in his hand was spilling almost all of its water across Bayern Munich’s home turf, but he didn’t care. Nearing a hoarding placed along the sidelines in front of the ‘away’ section, he finally slowed down. ‘Warsteiner,’ read the hoarding. An advertisement for a brewery. Rehhagel climbed over it and ran some more. At last he came to a stop in front of the Kaiserslautern fans who had made the 387-kilometre trip to Munich, and raised his hands in celebration. Revenge was here. Who needs water? It was probably time for some beer.
“Revenge is for a person who is vengeful. I just wanted to win a football game there. We managed to do that,” Rehhagel later said about the victory over Bayern. His celebration, however, suggested it probably mattered more to the tactician than he cared to admit.
When Rehhagel’s Kaiserslautern beat Bayern Munich 1-0 in the season opener of the 1997-98 Bundesliga season, Kaiserslautern were newly promoted. Bayern were the defending champions. Two seasons earlier, Rehhagel had been sacked as Bayern coach in his first season in charge of the German giants, just 4 days before his team were to play the 1995/96 UEFA Cup final against French side Bordeaux. In contrast to their form in Europe, however, Bayern had been struggling domestically, dropping points at a disturbing rate in the second half of the season. There were also reports that Rehhagel’s tactics were old-school and some of his own players publicly undermined him in the media.
After a 0-1 defeat to Hansa Rostock on April 27, 1996, Bayern decided they had seen enough. Rehhagel was fired.
The experienced trainer, who had won 2 Bundesliga titles and the European Cup Winners’ Cup with Werder Bremen during a 14-year stint prior to becoming Bayern boss, surprised everyone with his next move: he dropped down a division and signed up with the newly relegated Kaiserslautern (called FCK by supporters).
“(Rehhagel) had many individual talks with us and made it clear to us that we had to have respect for the other teams in the second division and that we had to fight for every single point,” recalled Andreas Brehme, a World Cup winner with Germany in 1990 who was then winding down his career at FCK.
“We players all felt partly to blame for this relegation. That’s why it was easy for the club to keep most of the regular players and also to extend my contract,” wrote Brehme in ‘Sure-Footed: The Story of A World Champion,’ his autobiography.
One season later, FCK were back in the Bundesliga as champions of the second division.
One more season later, they had won the Bundesliga, snatching the crown off Bayern’s head. ‘The miracle of Kaiserslautern’ of 1997/98 remains the first and only instance of a newly promoted club winning the Bundesliga.
Rehhagel would later go on to even greater glory by guiding Greece, who were 150-1 outsiders to win the Euro 2004 tournament, to victory in Portugal. It was the miracle of FCK all over again.
A quarter century on from Kaiserslautern’s famous victory, a feat of almost similar magnitude is required by teams aiming to win the Bundesliga this season. Bayern Munich have won the past 11 championships, a record unrivalled across the Big Five leagues of Europe.
And if Bayern’s performances against fellow title contenders this season is anything to go by, it’ll take an almighty scrap to prise the championship away from the grip of the serial champions.
With the Bundesliga currently in its winter break, let’s look at the teams currently challenging Bayern (currently 2nd in standings, with 38 points) for the title, and their championship prospects. Going by the Bundesliga standings, the contenders seem to be Bayer Leverkusen (1st, 42 points), VFB Stuttgart (3rd, 34 points) and RB Leipzig (4th, 33 points). Borussia Dortmund (5th, 27 points), so often Bayern’s challenger this past decade, are not considered as they are currently 15 points off the top spot.
To access the merits of each contender, we’ll look at 3 parameters:
- How the contenders have fared against each other this season
- How each club has fared against Bayern Munich, the champions and
- How each club has fared against the remaining teams in the division
VFB STUTTGART
Stuttgart lie third on the Bundesliga table, a point ahead of RB Leipzig and 8 points off the top. Of the 3 teams currently well-placed to challenge Bayern for the championship, Stuttgart are the only club with previous experience of winning the Bundesliga.
Just 6 months ago, Stuttgart were struggling to stay in the German top flight, needing a playoff win over Hamburger SV to stave off relegation. Under coach Sebastian Hoeness, who took over in April 2023 with the club bottom of the Bundesliga standings, the team from south-west Germany look transformed. They play positive, proactive football that creates chances rather than waiting for them and seek to put opponents under pressure from the off.
Stuttgart lost 3 important first-team players last summer: Wataru Endo (to Liverpool), Konstantinos Mavropanos (to West Ham) and Borna Sosa (to Ajax). Hoeness, however, signed some players for a steal to reinforce the team and they have repaid his faith many times over.
Serhou Guirassy (a €9 million signing from Rennes) is now the Bundesliga’s second highest scorer with 17 goals in 14 games, Angelo Stiller (a €5.5 million signing from Hoffenheim) has been outstanding since replacing Endo in playing the ‘Claude Makelele’ role for the team, Deniz Undav (on loan from Brighton and Hove Albion) dovetails perfectly with Guirassy in attack and Maximilian Mittelstadt (a €500,000 signing from Hertha BSC) has formed a devastating partnership with Chris Fuhrich down Stuttgart’s left wing.
Despite all these attributes, however, among the 3 teams currently challenging Bayern for the title, Stuttgart seem to have the weakest chance of winning the championship. Let’s see why in detail.
RB LEIPZIG VS STUTTGART
- Date: August 25,2023
- Result: RB Leipzig 5-1 Stuttgart
An ebullient Stuttgart, fresh off a 5-0 drubbing of VFL Bochum during their season opener, visited Leipzig on the second matchday of this Bundesliga season. Halfway into the match, Stuttgart had an improbable 1-0 lead over Leipzig. They had not been the better side, Leipzig had pressed Stuttgart better, played better and had created more chances, but Stuttgart’s defence had held them off. The visitors had also been more clinical in front of goal.
If Hoeness’ men could repeat in the second half what they had managed in the first, a famous victory awaited.
But Leipzig shifted gears in the second half, and Stuttgart could no longer stay with them.
Leipzig’s pressing and counterpressing became relentless as they choked Stuttgart off the ball. It didn’t help that Hoeness’s charges failed to press Leipzig with anywhere near the intensity that they were experiencing from Leipzig.
Marco Rose’s men scored 3 times in one 15-minute window in the second half, and twice more after that.
Stuttgart failed to add to their first half tally.
Looking back on his team’s humbling, Hoeness said, “We were really good in the first half and really bad in the second. I’m taking away two things from this game: we were able to compete against and impose ourselves on a good team, and the second half showed that we still have things to learn.”
Stuttgart learnt fast.
Over the next 3 months, they won 9 of their next 11 Bundesliga matches, including a 2-1 victory over a far stronger Borussia Dortmund. Next up was table-topper Bayer Leverkusen.
STUTTGART VS BAYER LEVERKUSEN
- Date: December 10, 2023
- Result: Stuttgart 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen
The captain of the Bundesliga table-toppers looked relieved. “They’re a top team, we’ll take the point,” Lucas Hradecky said. “We have to be satisfied.”
When Bayer Leverkusen visited the MHPArena, Stuttgart’s stadium, in December, Stuttgart were sitting 3rd in the Bundesliga table. The first half ended exactly how Stuttgart’s match against Leipzig had ended – with Stuttgart leading 1-0.
But they could have been leading by more.
The Schwaben (The Swabians) had held up surprisingly well against Xabi Alonso’s unbeaten Leverkusen, creating multiple goal scoring chances while at the same time managing to stop the Werkself (the Factory Team) from settling into their free-flowing football. Only Leverkusen’s goalkeeper Hradecky rescued the visitors from an embarrassing scoreline at the break.
“The best thing about the first half was the score,” conceded Leverkusen coach Alonso later.
After the break, however, Leverkusen played Stuttgart off the park. Most of the action was confined to the home team’s half as the league leaders scored early in the second half and created enough chances to take the 3 points.
“In the first half we really felt the flow of Stuttgart,” Alonso observed. “They played really well. We reacted after the break, we were calmer with the ball and carved out our chances. It’s a fair result.”
The match against Leverkusen was similar to Stuttgart’s encounter with Leipzig, another title contender: The Schwaben were able to hold their own when given the space to thrive on the ball, but struggled to stay with the opposition when they switched gears and pulled away.
“We played very well in the first half but the goal we conceded after the restart pulled the plug for us mentally,” Hoeness later admitted. “We didn’t recover from that but I am still delighted with the result as Leverkusen is a top team.”
BAYERN MUNICH VS STUTTGART
- Date: December 18, 2023
- Result: Bayern Munich 3-0 Stuttgart
Stuttgart’s match against Bayern showed what could happen to Hoeness’s team if the opposition presses ruthlessly and denies them time and space on the ball. Bayern’s xG (expected goals) for the Stuttgart game was 2.87. Stuttgart’s was 0.18.
“It was a bad night for us. Sadly we couldn’t contribute to it being a top-of-the-table clash,” said Hoeness after the match.
Bayern were dealing with an injury crisis ahead of the clash, with several first-team regulars like Joshua Kimmich, Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry and Leon Goretzka sidelined. The Bavarian giants were forced to name only 6 substitutes to their bench, including a youth team player. Stuttgart had almost all of their first-choice players available.
But Bayern still made the Schwaben look pedestrian.
Thomas Tuchel’s men, in a stellar defensive display, worked all over the pitch to stop Stuttgart from getting into threatening positions. They rarely lost the ball and even when they did, claimed it back with embarrassing ease. Bayern’s discipline on the field overwhelmed the high-flying Stuttgart.
“It was one of our weakest performances,” lamented Stuttgart goalkeeper Alexander Nubel, who is there on loan from Bayern. “We weren’t brave, didn’t get into the duels.”
Hoeness echoed Nubel’s regret. “We just never got into the game. Obviously we’re disappointed,” he said.
STUTTGART VS THE REST OF THE BUNDESLIGA
The Schwaben have dropped points 5 times this season, and three of those instances were against Bayern, Leverkusen and Leipzig. The other 2 instances were defeats to Hoffenheim and Heidenheim. Stuttgart have picked up 3 points against everyone else.
Throughout this season, Stuttgart have had only one response immediately after defeat: victory. After their 1-5 defeat to RB Lepzig on matchday 1, they went on a 6-match winning streak. After 2 successive defeats against Hoffenheim and Heidenheim on matchdays 9 and 10, they won 3 matches on the bounce before drawing with Bayer Leverkusen.
In the aftermath of their shoddy defeat to Bayern, the Schwaben reverted back to form: they won again. In their final match before the winter break, Stuttgart registered a 3-0 win over tenth-placed FC Augsburg, controlling the match from start to finish.
With the Augsburg players not marking Stuttgart with the same zeal as Bayern or Leverkusen, the Schwaben played their football without constraint. The match underlined another truth about this Stuttgart side: a handful of teams have succeeded in hobbling them, but most have not. When afforded space, Stuttgart are deadly.
“We’re extremely happy with our performance tonight,” said Hoeness. “We scored our goals at the right moments, so the result is fully deserved in my opinion. I’m happy that we played the way we did in our final game of the year.”
SO, CAN STUTTGART WIN THE BUNDESLIGA?
At this precise juncture in the Bundesliga during the 2006/07 season, Stuttgart were third after 16 matchdays, the same position they are in now. They were 2 points off the top spot — then occupied by Werder Bremen — but ended up winning the title that season.
However, it’s hard to imagine the same thing happening again this time. This is primarily because:
- Leverkusen have an 8-point lead at the top over the Schwaben, a gap that looks considerable
- Stuttgart’s squad does not seem as strong as that of the three other title contenders: Leverkusen, Bayern and Leipzig and
- Hoeness’ team have struggled to compete on level terms with the other 3 title contenders. While this is not a prerequisite to win the title, it remains hard to imagine those 3 teams dropping enough points in the second half of the season for Stuttgart to overhaul them, or for the Schwaben to take points off them.
Stuttgart winning the title in 2006/07 was a shock, but in the 5 seasons immediately preceding their triumph, they had consistently qualified for Europe and were an established force in the Bundesliga.
Now, however, Stuttgart’s record in the past 5 seasons includes desperate scraps against relegation (including one they lost in 2019/20) and a highest league position of ninth they achieved in 2020/21.
If Stuttgart manage to hold on to their spot in the top 4 and secure qualification for the UEFA Champions League next season, it would still be an astonishing feat. On current form, they look a cert to do so.